Financialist:投资者如何应对中国经济放缓
2016-03-01 17:58:34
Financialist:投资者如何应对中国经济放缓(2016.03.01)

  提要:中国在全球金融市场中已占有举足轻重的地位。这种情况下,中国经济硬着陆已引发全球投资者的恐慌。瑞士信贷预计,中国政府将尽力确保信贷、投资和房地产泡沫组成的三重经济泡沫不会破灭。瑞士信贷建议,投资者不应投资于重型设备、碳钢及散装化学品等中国资本密集型产业,而是要将关注力转向中国飞速成长的消费导向型企业。

  (外脑精华·北京)中国已成全球金融市场风向标

  中国如今是全球金融市场的风向标。当1月初爆出2015年中国经济增速创下25年来最低水平的消息后,瑞士信贷的全球风险偏好指数滑落至恐慌级别。这种情况非常罕见,通常只有在出现诸如贝尔斯登银行倒闭或美国主权债务评级下调之类的重大宏观事件之后才会发生。

  中国目前处于由信贷、投资和房地产泡沫组成的所谓的三重泡沫中。因而,瑞士信贷全球市场股票分析师们正在密切关注他们觉得将会使中国经济硬着陆的几率大增的三个指标:即中国房价跌幅是否会超过15%的中国房价、中国金融系统贷存比是否会突破100%或是资本加速外逃。不过,这些都非他们假设的中国银行业的基本情形。相反,瑞士信贷的分析师们预计中国政府将尽力确保这些泡沫不会破灭,因为至少在一定程度上,这些泡沫是由中国政府推出的减税、下调利率及银行存款准备金率等额外的经济刺激措施所催生。

  投资者应关注中国的消费导向型企业

  那么,惶恐不安的投资者该如何应对呢?他们不应去对在近年来充当中国经济增引擎的中国重工业进行投资。随着中国经济继续转向消费主导模式,预计在未来10年中,中国的投资/GDP将从44%降至35%。因此,瑞士信贷警告称,不要对重型设备、碳钢及散装化学品等资本密集型产业进行投资。

  相反,瑞士信贷的分析师们建议投资者将关注力转向中国飞速成长的消费导向型企业。阿里巴巴、百度、Naspers、腾讯和唯品会等中国互联网巨头将从4g无线服务大幅扩张使得超过2.5亿用户获得更快的移动互联网服务中受益。虽然目前在线零售销售总额仅占中国零售销售总额的10%,瑞士信贷分析师们认为,在线零售商以及提供在线教育和网上银行服务的企业最终将在中国市场的渗透率将超过其在发达市场的渗透率,其中一些企业在中国市场的渗透率已经达到了15%。

  过去一个月的情况表明,中国经济的动向会通过两种途径影响国外经济,而且精明的投资者能够在国外市场上找到能得益于中国经济稳定的投资机会。例如,日本企业一方面高度依赖在华经纪业务,另一方面营运杠杆(固定成本与总成本之比)较高,因此最有条件得益于中国经济走稳。令日本企业更具吸引力的是其股价在全球最便宜,60%的日本上市企业的股价低于重置价格。

  欧洲汽车零部件厂商提供了得益于中国消费支出而又无需购买中国企业股票的另一种投资选择。中国不断壮大的中产阶级对汽车的需求毫无下降迹象,而且汽车需要更高效的零部件来满足中国雄心勃勃的碳减排目标。这对通常来自中国市场的收入占其收入总额15-20%的欧洲汽车零部件制造商构成利好。

  外国汽车制造商对华出口汽车的前景则不这么乐观。中国正在讨论的一项新政策将放宽对汽车经销商的限制,允许汽车经销商销售多个汽车制造商生产的汽车。这可能会削弱外国汽车厂商在经销权谈判中的话语权。此外,中国汽车的质量在过去10年中得到了显著改善,而且中国国内汽车市场竞争日益激烈。除了汽车业之外,西方企业在电力传输和分配、铁路、轴承、自动化、太阳能、钢铁和化学物质等越来越多的产业面临着来自中国企业的愈发严峻的挑战。

  品牌知名度高的外国奢侈品企业尚无需对中国国内市场的竞争感到担忧,但中国经济放缓对这些企业也没有任何好处。澳门赌场收入增速和瑞士手表新订单等奢侈品消费的主要指标疲软。这可以算是中国的第四个泡沫,因为目前中国奢侈品销售额占欧洲奢侈品销售总额的30%,中国居民在奢侈品方面的消费支出额是日本居民的两倍,是欧洲居民的十倍,从长远角度来讲,这一消费支出水平不具可持续性。

  

  英文原文:Weathering China’s Slowdown

When it comes to global financial markets, China is in the driver's seat. After it was reported in early January that the world's second-largest economy grew at its lowest rate in 25 years in 2015, Credit Suisse's Global Risk Appetite index slipped into panic mode - a rare occurrence that has typically only followed major macro events such as the failure of Bear Stearns or the U.S. sovereign debt downgrade.

China is currently in the midst of what might be called a triple bubble - in credit, investment, and real estate. As a result, Credit Suisse Global Markets equity analysts are watching three indicators that they feel would significantly increase the likelihood of a hard landing: property prices dropping more than 15 percent, the financial system's loan-to-deposit ratio rising above 100 percent, or an acceleration of capital flight. None of these are the bank's base-case scenario, however. Instead, Credit Suisse analysts expect the government to try to keep those bubbles at least partly inflated by initiating additional stimulus measures, such as cuts in taxes, interest rates, and reserve requirements for banks,

So what's a nervous investor to do? Here's what they shouldn't do: invest in the heavy industry that drove China's growth in recent years. As the Chinese economy continues its transformation to a consumption-driven model, investment as a share of GDP is expected to drop from 44 percent to 35 percent over the next 10 years. As such, Credit Suisse cautions against investments in capital-intensive industries such as heavy equipment, carbon steel, and bulk chemicals.

Instead, the bank's analysts suggest that investors focus on the country's fast-growing, consumer-oriented businesses. Internet giants such as Alibaba, Baidu, Naspers, Tencent, and Vipshop will benefit from a significant expansion of 4G wireless service that has brought faster mobile Internet service to more than 250 million users. While online retail sales currently account for just 10 percent of the Chinese total, Credit Suisse analysts believe that online retailers - as well as companies offering web-based education and banking services - will ultimately achieve greater penetration in China than they have in developed markets, some of which are already seeing 15 percent penetration.

As the past month has shown, what happens in China doesn't stay in China. But that dependence runs two ways, and savvy investors can also find attractive China-related plays outside the country that are in a position to benefit if the Chinese economy stabilizes. Japanese companies, in particular, are in a prime position to benefit in the event that it does, as they have both high economic exposure to China and the highest operational leverage (fixed costs as a percentage of total costs) in the world, making them particularly sensitive to economic upswings of any sort. Adding to Japan's allure: Its equities market is the cheapest in the world, with 60 percent of companies trading below replacement value.

European auto parts makers are another way to tap the benefits of Chinese consumer spending without having to buy Chinese companies themselves. There is no sign of a slowdown in demand for cars from China's growing middle class, and cars will need to have more efficient parts in order to meet China's ambitious carbon emissions reduction goals. This bodes well for European auto parts makers, which typically earn between 15 and 20 percent of their revenue from China.

Foreign automakers that sell into China aren't quite as compelling. A new policy under discussion would relax restrictions on auto dealers, allowing them to sell vehicles from multiple car manufacturers, with the likely effect of reducing foreign automakers' leverage over dealerships. In addition, the quality of China's cars has improved markedly in the last decade, and the domestic market is increasingly competitive. Beyond automobiles, the growing list of industries in which Western companies face a growing threat from Chinese ones-both in China and elsewhere-includes power transmission and distribution, rail, bearings, automation, solar, steel, and chemicals.

Luxury goods companies with major brand recognition don't yet have to worry about domestic competition in China, but the slowing economy isn't doing them any favors either. Leading indicators of luxury spending, such as casino revenue growth in Macau and new orders for Swiss watches, are weak. Make that four bubbles: the Chinese market currently accounts for 30 percent of European luxury goods sales, as its people currently spend twice as much (as a percentage of household wealth) on luxury goods as the Japanese and ten times what Europeans do, a level that is likely unsustainable over the long-term.

来源:Financialist,作者:Alice Gomstyn
作者:Alice

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