巴黎银行:印度经济走势良好,但风险犹存
2016-03-03 17:31:43
巴黎银行:印度经济走势良好,但风险犹存(2016.03.03)

  提要:近期,印度经济走势继续好转。经济增长前景令人鼓舞,企业营业收入恢复了增长。不过,部分领域还存在不容忽视的不确定因素。银行业的信用风险继续上升,国有银行还需增加资本以满足资本充足率的要求。印度政府无力为国有银行注入足够资本,因此这些银行首先需要清理账户,才能在金融市场上筹资。此外,印度政府推进货物和服务税改革的努力再次在国会受挫。

  (外脑精华·北京)2015-2016财年(2015年4月至2016年3月)上半年,印度经济同比增速由上年同期的7.5%降至7.2%。不过,2季度以来,随着企业部门财务状况继续好转,印度经济增速明显加快。

  经济增速加快

  2015-2016财年2季度,印度经济同比增速由1季度的7%加快到7.4%,主要动力来自国内消费高涨和公共投资急剧加速。但另一方面,由于2季度出口同比下跌4.7%,因而净出口继续拖累经济增长,令经济增速减少0.4个百分点。

  最新经济指标显示,印度经济保持了近期的增长势头。10月工业产出同比增长9.8%,由于消费商品和资本商品生产显著提升。家庭购买力提升,支持个人消费和汽车销售。

  即便如此,关键问题在于是否企业已经开始或即将开始再次投资。目前财年的第2季度,投资增长超过同比6.8%,对于增长贡献了2.1%。然而,这一提升显然反应了政府投资增长超过了企业投资的提升。根据政府预算数据,发展计划中资本支出在财年前8个月相比去年同期同比提升8%。此外,基础设施和建筑是银行贷款回升的主要部门,道路建设是最为突出的。

  企业经营状况好转

  2015年3季度,企业财务状态改善主要归功于大宗商品价格暴跌。因此,2015年3季度净收益同比提升7%,此前3个季度下降。

  此外,由于债务减少的驱动,企业财务状况并没有非常紧张。2015年3季度,其税前收益的30.3%用于支付利息,相比2014年底接近36%的水平有所下降。因此,其税前收益覆盖了其2015年3季度利息费用,为3.3倍,2014年年底仅为2.8倍利率支出。同期,企业边际利润提升。2015年3季度净收益提升至收入的7.7%,而2014年底仅为4.3%。

  总之,尽管企业财务处于非常脆弱的状态,自2014年12月有所改善,为投资复苏铺平了道路。即便如此,若干指标表明,个人投资还未提升。产能利用率正在下降,投资项目处于下降同时投资在2015年3、4季度暂停增长。

  银行部门风险突出

  银行尚未从企业财务环境改善中得到任何好处。印度储备银行近期报告指出,信贷风险进一步提升。2015年底可疑和重组的贷款占到11.3%,高于2011年6%的水平。国有银行账户存在大量风险贷款。9月底比例为14.1%,而私人银行仅为4.6%,外资银行为3.4%。

  此外,风险贷款主要集中在工业和特定的5个活动部门--采矿、炼钢、纺织、基础设施和航空。这些部门占风险贷款的53%,仅有整体银行贷款的24.2%进入企业运作当中。基础设施和航空拥有最高的敞口。

  央行在其最近的金融稳定报告中估计,公共部门银行规定,在经济和金融环境显著恶化的情况下,不会覆盖其损失。60个银行中的19个表达了关注,他们持有36.2%的银行贷款。此外,5个银行的损失超过其资本。

  与此同时,银行盈利能力下降。2015年9月ROA和ROE降至0.7%和8.5%,2011年分别为1.1%和13.6%。2015-2016财年上半年税后利润下降4.4%--主要由于准备金显著提升--国有银行总计缩减22.7%。

  到9月底,银行业资本充足率仅为12.7%。即便如此,各家银行间的情况不尽相同。国有银行为11%,其中许多在10%左右,私人银行平均为15.5%。

  为提高资本充足率,特别是资本质量恶化之后,8月政府注入2000亿卢比,并将在2016年3月注入另外的500亿。然而,这些资本注入低于银行实际需求,甚至考虑额外的4500亿卢比,这将在2019年3月注入。政府认为需要拿出额外的1.1万亿卢比。评级机构惠誉估计,印度银行需要1400亿美元,满足近期印度央行出台的监管标准,并应对更高的违约率。惠誉预计最大的5个国有银行需要670亿美元。

  从目前情况来看,政府不大可能注入国有银行需要的全部资本,国有银行需要早2019年3月31日满足货币当局制订的监管标准。鉴于公共财政状况,其无法负担,特别是在财政紧缩的背景下,有限的财政能力面临挑战。

  

  英文原文:Public banks under scrutiny

The economic picture in India continues to improve. Growth prospects look encouraging, and corporate earnings are starting to grow again. Even so, several areas of uncertainty should not be overlooked. Credit risks in the banking sector continue to increase, and public banks need capital to comply with capital adequacy ratios. The government will not be able to fully recapitalise them, and so it is essential for them to clean up their accounts before attempting to raise funds in the markets. At the same time, the government again failed to get reform of the goods and services tax through parliament in December's final session.

In the first half of the 2015-16 fiscal year (FY), growth slowed slightly to 7.2% from 7.5% in the first six months of the previous fiscal year. Even so, since the second quarter, growth has accelerated significantly, and this is set to continue as businesses consolidate their finances.

Acceleration in growth

In the second quarter of the 2015-16 fiscal year, the pace of economic growth in India picked up to 7.4% compared with the same period of the previous year (vs. 7% in the previous quarter) on the back of upbeat domestic consumption and a sharp acceleration in public-sector investments. That said, net exports made another negative contribution to growth (-0.4 percentage points) owing to the 4.7% year-on-year decline in exports in Q2 FY 2015-16.

The latest economic indicators suggest growth has maintained the momentum it had at the beginning of the third quarter of the fiscal year. Industrial output recorded a 9.8% year-on-year increase in October, with the impetus coming from a steep rise in production of consumer goods (up 18.4% y/y) and also capital goods (up 16.1% y/y). The increase in households’ purchasing power (as inflationary pressures have receded) underpinned personal consumption and vehicle sales (up 14% y/y in November).

Even so, the crucial issue is whether businesses have already started or will start to invest again. In the second quarter of the current fiscal year, investments grew by more than 6.8% year-on- year, contributing 2.1 percentage points to growth. Nonetheless, this increase apparently reflects the rise in government investment rather than an upturn in investments by businesses. According to the government's budget figures, capital spending under its development programme rose by over 8% year-on-year in the first eight months of the fiscal year compared with the same period of the previous year. What's more, infrastructure and construction were the main sectors in which bank lending picked up pace, with road construction the stand-out performer.

Pressures on businesses easing

In Q3 2015, the state of businesses' finances improved owing in particular to the steep decline in their commodity costs. As a result, their net earnings rose by 7% year-on-year in Q3 2015, after declining in the three previous quarters.

In addition, businesses' financial position is less stretched following their debt reduction drive. In Q3 2015, 30.3% of their revenues before tax was devoted to paying interest, down from close to 36% in late 2014. As a result, their pre-tax revenues covered their Q3 2015 interest expense by factor of 3.3x, compared with just 2.8 times interest expense in late 2014. At the same time, businesses’ profit margins have increased. Net earnings (after tax) rose to 7.7% of revenues in Q3 2015 from just 4.3% of revenues in late 2014.

To sum up, although businesses' finances are in a fairly fragile state, they have improved since December 2014, paving the way for their investments to recover. Even so, several indicators tend to suggest that private investment has yet to pick up. Production capacity utilisation rates are declining, investment projects are on the decrease and investments halted rose in the third and fourth quarters of 2015.

Higher risks in the banking sector

Banks have not yet reaped any benefit from the improvement in businesses' financial position. The Reserve Bank of India's latest report points to a further rise in credit risk. Doubtful and restructured loans amounted to 11.3% of lending at end-September 2015, up from just 6% in 2011. Public-sector banks (which hold 75% of bank assets) account for the bulk of loans at risk. The ratio stood at 14.1% at end-September (vs. 8% in 2011), compared with just 4.6% for private-sector banks and 3.4% for foreign banks.

What's more, loans at risk are concentrated in industry and in five sectors of activity in particular - mining, steel-making, textiles, infrastructure and aviation. These sectors of activity alone account for 53% of loans at risk, yet just 24.2% of total banking sector lending went to businesses operating in them. Infrastructure and aviation are the sectors with the highest exposure (with respectively 61% and 24% of lending to them classified as being at risk).

The RBI estimates in its latest financial stability report that public- sector banks’ provisions would not suffice to cover their losses (estimated at 3.8% of total loans) were the economic and financial environment to deteriorate significantly1. 19 of 60 banks are said to be concerned, and they hold 36.2% of bank loans (compared with just 16 in June 2015). What’s more, five banks (accounting for 2.4% of bank loans) would have losses exceeding their capital.

At the same time, banks' profitability declined. ROA and ROE slipped to 0.7% and 8.5% in September 2015, down from 1.1% and 13.6% in 2011. Earnings after tax contracted by 4.4% in the first half of the FY 2015-16 - owing in particular to the steep rise in provisions (22.2%) – and the contraction worked out at 22.7% for public-sector banks.

By the end of September, the capital adequacy ratio for the banking sector as a whole was mere a 12.7%. Even so, the situation varies tremendously from one bank to another. It stood at 11% for public- sector banks, but many of them have a ratio of around 10%, while their private counterparts average 15.5%.

To improve their capital adequacy ratio, especially after the deterioration in their asset quality, the government injected INR 200 bn in August and will pump in another INR 50 bn by March 2016 (representing a total of USD 3.5 bn). Yet these capital injections fall well short of banks’ actual needs, even taking into account the additional INR450bn (USD 6.4 bn) due to be injected by March 2019 (INR 250 bn in FY 2016-17 and INR 100 bn in FY 2018 and FY 2019). The government itself believes that it will need to come up with another INR1100bn (USD 16 bn). Fitch, the rating agency, estimates that Indian banks critically need around USD 140 bn to meet the latest regulatory standards laid down by India’s central bank and to cope with higher rates of payment default. Of this INR 140 bn, Fitch estimates that the top five public-sector banks will need to be given over USD 67 bn.

As things stand, it is impossible for the government to inject all the capital that public-sector banks need to meet the regulatory standards laid down by monetary authorities by the 31 March 2019 deadline2. Given the state of the public finances, it cannot afford to do so, especially against a backdrop of fiscal retrenchment. Banks will have to raise capital in the financial markets, and for the time being, that appears a big ask given their financial condition.

来源:巴黎银行,作者:Johanna Melka
作者:Johanna

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