Financialist:中国经济减速将如何影响欧洲经济
2016-03-17 09:15:45
Financialist:中国经济减速将如何影响欧洲经济(2016.03.22)

  提要:中国经济减速的影响遍及全球,本文旨在讨论,欧洲是否会成为下一个遭受中国需求减速冲击的经济体。文章认为,就外贸而言,虽然部分欧洲行业会遭受中国需求减速的打击,但欧洲不同于拉美,不大可能因中国需求减速而出现出口暴跌。就金融层面而言,不能排除中国金融动荡波及欧盟的风险。然而,中国经济减速对欧洲最大的影响或许在于心理层面。总体上看,关于中国减速对欧洲经济的影响,经济学家仍持相对乐观的判断。

  (外脑精华·北京)Alice Gomstyn中国经济减速的影响确实遍及全球:投资者将巨额资金撤出中国的亚洲邻国,拉美国家对华原材料出口急剧下滑,而且,对中国经济的担忧导致全球各地区股市陷入动荡,并打击了投资者的风险承受度。那么,欧洲是否会成为下一个遭受中国需求减速冲击的经济体?

  中国需求低迷对欧洲影响有限

  欧洲不同于拉美,不大可能因中国需求减速而出现出口暴跌。然而,这并不意味着欧洲各行业都不会遭受中国减速的打击。中国市场吸收了欧洲金属原料出口的8.1%,木材和纸制品出口的8.5%,纺织品原材料出口的10.4%。在德国,10%的机械和运输设备出口向中国,而对华出口的机械和运输产品占该国出口总值的5%。

  然而,整体而言,中国需求仅占欧洲GDP的1%,除日本外亚洲其他国家需求占另外1%。去年欧元区向中国出口下降接近5%,整体出口提升9%,向发达经济体出口驱动更大增长。因此,瑞信全球市场分析师认为,中国及其他新兴经济体内需进一步减速的直接影响并不会对欧元区经济增长造成严重冲击。

  金融动荡的风险不能排除

  鉴于欧洲银行业已深入参与全球经济,因而不能排除中国金融动荡波及欧盟的风险。在2015年最后一个季度,有超过50%的中国银行不良贷款数量提升。对于已经把钱借给中国银行的欧洲银行来说有所担忧,出借人能够看到信用下降,如果银行对应中国相关损失而撤出国内贷款。法国和德国银行拥有最多的中国直接贷款,近几年提高其向中国银行的贷款。

  但脆弱的法国和德国银行--分别持有400亿欧元和300亿欧元的中国资产--相比西班牙银行系统,则相形见绌。虽然西班牙银行向中国贷款较少,至少低于法国和德国,他们有大量的拉丁美洲贷款,拉丁美洲受到中国商品需求下降的影响显著。去年西班牙银行持有价值3500亿欧元拉丁美洲和加勒比资产。瑞信表示有一些证据表明,西班牙信贷环境开始恶化。银行全球市场部分析师表示“新兴市场资产等级面临更严重的金融危机,西班牙银行信贷环境可能收紧。”

  最大风险或许在于心理层面

  银行业之外,或许欧洲面临的中国经济减速相关的最大问题是心理上的。首先,瑞信全球风险偏好指数处于恐慌模式。此外,德国IFO机构近期报告,其月度信心指数从12月的108.6降至1月的107.3。瑞信早些时候调查显示,去年对于中国和亚洲的担忧,在欧洲企业高管所担心中排名靠前。究竟是欧洲企业对中国的担忧最终导致欧洲对华投资下降,还是欧洲企业更关注中国市场上依然存在的机遇,这还有待观察。

  瑞新经济学家认为,上述第二种可能有很大讨论空间。欧洲的前景--以及欧洲股市的前景--有很多原因,包括预期欧洲央行的放宽,劳动力市场的改善,和强劲的消费需求,以及以欧元计价的石油价格下降50%。欧洲没有很多石油生产,较低的能源价格可能促进企业利润、投资和就业,以及家庭收入。财政环境最终放宽,信贷环境同样宽松。瑞信预计欧元区经济今年将增长1.8%--2015年上升1.5%,是2014年0.9%增速的2倍--目前,就中国经济减速对欧洲的影响而言,经济学家仍持相对乐观的判断。

  

  英文原文:How Vulnerable Is Europe to China’s Slowdown?

The effects of China's economic slowdown are truly global: At the same time that investors are pulling billions of dollars out of neighboring Asian countries, Latin American countries are seeing raw materials exports to the Middle Kingdom fall sharply, and China concerns have brought volatility back to stock markets around the world and doused investor risk appetite. Could Europe be the next to be affected by sinking Chinese demand?

Unlike Latin America, a China-related sharp fall in exports isn't likely in Europe. That's not to say there aren't European industries that are vulnerable to China's problems. China takes 8.1 percent of Europe's raw metals exports, 8.5 percent of its wood and paper, and 10.4 percent of raw materials used to make textiles. In Germany, 10 percent of machinery and transport exports go to China, and those China-bound machinery and transport products make up 5 percent of the country's total exports.

Overall, however, Chinese demand accounts for just 1 percent of Europe's GDP, while demand in the rest of non-Japan Asia accounts for another 1 percent. The euro area's exports to China fell nearly 5 percent last year and yet overall exports rose 9 percent, with exports to developed economies driving much of the growth. As a result, analysts in Credit Suisse's Global Markets division are skeptical that "the direct effects of a further slowdown in domestic demand in China or other emerging markets would deliver a severe, further, downside shock to euro area growth."

Given the international reach of Europe's banking system, the risk of financial contagion originating in China and finding its way into the EU cannot be dismissed. In the last quarter of 2015, more than 50 percent of Chinese banks saw an increase in the number of non-performing loans. That's a concern for European banks that have lent money to Chinese banks, as well as borrowers who could see their access to credit decline if banks grappling with China-related losses pull back on domestic lending. French and German banks have the most direct exposure to China, having increased their loans to Chinese banks in recent years.

But the vulnerability of French and German banks - which hold some 40 billion and 30 billion in Chinese assets, respectively - pales in comparison to that of the Spanish banking system. While Spanish banks lend little to China, at least in comparison to their French and German counterparts, they do have a large exposure to Latin America, which is suffering from declining Chinese demand for commodities. Spanish banks held about 350 billion worth of Latin American and Caribbean assets last year. Credit Suisse said there's already some evidence that credit conditions in Spain have begun to deteriorate. "In the event of a more severe financial crisis across the emerging markets asset class, it is possible that credit conditions for Spanish banks [will] tighten," said the bank's Global Market division analysts.

Outside of banking, perhaps the greatest China-related obstacle facing Europe is psychological. For starters, Credit Suisse's Global Risk Appetite index is in 'panic' mode. What's more, Germany's Ifo Institute reported late last month that its monthly confidence index dropped from 108.6 in December to 107.3 in January. An earlier survey by Credit Suisse found that concerns about China and Asia topped European executives' list of worries last year. It remains to be seen whether those concerns will translate into declining investment, or whether European business leaders will concentrate on the half of the glass that is still full.

Credit Suisse economists believe there is much to be said for the latter point of view. Europe's outlook - and, by extension, the outlook for European equities - appears promising for a number of reasons, including anticipated easing by the European Central Bank, an improving labor market, and strong consumer demand, buoyed by a nearly 50 percent drop in the oil price in euro terms. Since Europe isn't much for oil production, low energy prices should boost corporate margins, investment, and employment as well as household income. Fiscal conditions are finally easing, and credit conditions are loosening, too. Credit Suisse expects the euro area economy to grow 1.8 percent this year - up from 1.5 percent in 2015 and double the 0.9 percent growth rate of 2014 - and, for now, economists remain "relatively sanguine" about China's problems dealing any kind of blow to that forecast.

来源:Financialist

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