日本内阁府:1月份日本经济报告
2016-03-08 15:15:18
日本内阁府:1月份日本经济报告(2016.03.08)

  提要:日本经济呈温和复苏态势,但一些领域呈现疲软态势。日本私人消费支出、商业投资和工业产出基本持稳,出口下滑,企业利润保持增长,就业状况继续好转。预计随着刺激政策影响的显现,以及就业和收入状况的不断改善,日本经济将继续复苏。不过,需要关注中国等亚洲新兴国家经济放缓给日本经济带来的下行风险。

  (外脑精华·北京)经济现状评估

  日本经济呈温和复苏态势,但一些领域呈现疲软态势。日本私人消费支出总体维持稳定。日本商业投资基本维持稳定。日本出口下降。近期日本工业产出持稳。日本企业利润呈增长态势。日本企业对即期商业景气状况的判断指数基本稳定,而一些领域出现谨慎迹象。日本就业状况呈日趋改善态势。日本消费者价格指数温和上涨。

  就短期前景而言,预计随着刺激政策影响的显现以及就业和收入状况的改善,日本经济将会复苏。不过,需要关注中国等亚洲新兴国家经济放缓给日本经济带来的下行风险。此外,需要关注在这种环境下金融和资本市场的动荡态势。

  政策立场

  日本政府将尽最大努力来确保日本经济摆脱通缩、同步实现经济振兴和财政稳固、以及灾后重建进度的加快。为此,日本政府稳步实施《2015年经济、财政管理和改革基本政策》、《2015修正版日本振兴战略》、《常规日本改革工作计划》以及《2015年日本克服人口下降和振兴地方经济的基本政策》。日本政府也在迅速稳步实施《TPP政策计划》、《建设全面积极共建社会的紧急政策》以及在此基础上推出的《2015财年预算追加案》。

  日本政府继续致力于通过这些措施引导更多企业利润流向商业投资、薪资增长和就业状况进一步改善,来扩大覆盖各地以及中小企业的经济良性循环圈。

  日本政府决定采取以下举措。

  实施日本内阁府于2015年12月22日批准的《2016年经济前景以及经济和财政管理基本方针》、日本内阁府2015年12月24日宣布的《2016财年预算案》、12月25日向日本内阁府提交的《经济和和财政振兴行动计划》。

  基于经济活动状况和物价走势,日本政府预期日本央行将实现2%的物价稳定目标。

  详细阐述

  1、消费及投资等需求趋势

  日本私人消费支出总体维持稳定。日本雇员实际收入和消费者信心指数双双回升。

  综合需求方(家庭收入和支出调查等数据)和供应方(工业企业出口指数等数据)统计数据的日本综合消费指数在11月份环比下降1.2%,这一方面是天气因素所致。就短期前景而言,在就业和收入状况改善的支撑下,预计日本消费将呈增长态势。

  日本商业投资基本持稳。分行业企业季度财报(7-9月当季)显示,在2015年4-6月当季环比下降2.7%之后,2015年7-9月当季日本商业投资环比增长5.4%。分行业来看,日本制造业商业投资环比增长7.6%,非制造行业商业投资环比增长4.3%。从供应方面统计数据来看,近期日本资本品发货量有所下滑。

  《日本央行12月份企业商业景气短观调查报告》显示,预计2015财年日本所有行业的计划商业投资以及非制造企业的计划商业投资将连续4年保持增长,2015财年制造业企业计划商业投资将连续5年保持增长。《商业前景调查报告》(10-12月份)显示,预计2015财年日本大型制造企业和大型非制造企业的计划商业投资将会双双增长。日本机械订单数量(一项先行指标)呈回升态势。

  就短期前景而言,预计企业利润增长将推动日本商业投资呈增长态势。

  日本住房开工量基本持稳。日本自住房、租赁房和销售房开工量基本持稳。此外,东京大都市地区的公寓销量基本持稳。

  就短期前景而言,预计日本房屋开工量在未来一段时间里将会持稳。

  日本公共投资出现温和下降。2015年12月份日本公共工程合同金额同比下降9.6%,2015年11月份日本公共工程合同订单同比下降2%。2015年11月份日本公共工程竣工量同比下降5.1%,环比下降1.9%。

  就短期前景而言,预计日本公共投资将继续呈温和下降态势。

  日本出口呈下降态势。按区域划分,对亚洲和其他地区出口额呈下降态势,对美国出口额温和下降,对欧盟出口额基本持稳。就短期前景而言,预计日本出口额将逐步回升,主要是由于海外国家经济温和复苏。不过,需要注意海外国家经济的下行风险。

  日本进口基本持稳。按区域划分,日本自亚洲、美国和欧盟的进口额基本维持稳定。就短期前景而言,预计日本进口额将呈逐步回升态势。

  日本货物和服务收支赤字呈下降趋势。由于出口额增长而进口额下降,日本11月份贸易收支转为顺差。日本服务贸易收支赤字下降。

  2、企业活动及就业走势

  近期日本工业产出持稳。11月份日本工业产出指数环比下跌0.9%。11月份日本工业库存指数环比下降0.4%。《制造业产出预测调查报告》预测,日本12月份工业产出将环比上涨0.9%,1月份工业产出将环比上涨6%。

  分行业来看,近期日本交通运输设备产出持稳。近期通用、生产和商用机械生产行业的产出呈下滑态势。日本电子零件及装置行业的产出维持稳定。

  就短期前景而言,预计海外经济体经济的温和复苏将推动日本工业产出逐步回升。

  日本企业整体利润呈增长态势。分行业企业季度财报(7-9月当季)显示,2015年7-9月当季日本企业利润同比增长9%,环比增长6.3%。就企业规模划分,日本大中型当季利润同比增长6.4%,而小型企业当季利润同比增长16.8%。《日本央行12月份短观调查报告》显示,预计2015财年日本企业销售收入将下降,而当期利润预计将连续4年保持增长。

  日本大型制造企业对即期商业景气度的判断指数基本持稳,而在一些领域出现了谨慎迹象。《日本央行12月份短观调查报告》显示,所有行业的所有企业对即期商业景气的判断指数基本持稳,而大型制造企业对即期商业景气的判断指数下降。企业未来商业景气度的判断指数(显示截至3月份的商业景气度)低于即期商业景气度的判断指数水平。同企业活动相关的日本经济观察家前景指数(12月份调查结果)显示,日本即期商业景气指数和未来商业景气指数双双上涨。日本破产企业数量基本持稳。

  日本就业状况呈改善趋势。日本11月份总体失业率环比上涨0.2%至3.3%。日本11月份15-24岁从业人员的总体失业率环比下降0.3%至5.2%。日本劳动人口、招聘员工人数下降,而日本裁员人数增长。

  日本就业人数呈增长态势。日本新增就业岗位数量呈增长态势。日本就业岗位供应量/求职人数有效比攀升。日本制造业加班时间基本维持稳定。

  就薪资走势而言,日本受薪者合约现金收入基本持稳。现金收入总额呈温和增长态势。

  就短期前景而言,预计日本就业状况将改善。

  3、物价及金融市场走势

  日本生产者价格指数呈温和下降态势。

  不含“生鲜食品、石油产品及其他特定商品”的日本核心消费物价指数温和上涨。

  月度消费者信心调查结果显示,日本12月份预期物价上涨的受访者比例为81.1%。

  就短期前景而言,预计日本核心消费物价指数温和上涨态势将持续一段时间。

  股市方面,日经平均指数从18800点跌至16900点。日元兑美元汇率从121:1升至117:1。


表:2016年1月份日本经济主要指标
指标 单位 日期 最新数据 前一期数据
GDP(支出法,当前价格) 10亿日元 15年4季度 129,635.9 122,347.7
GDP(支出法,2005年价格) 10亿日元 15年4季度 134,678.6 131,413.8
生产指数(工业生产、出货、库存) 2010年为100,季节性调整后 16年1月 99.8 96.2
就业人数 万人 16年1月 6,399 6,385
失业人数 万人 16年1月 211 204
工资与收入(工资指数) 2010年为100 16年1月 85.2 171.9
消费者价格(CPI) 2010年为100 16年1月 103.0 103.5
生产者价格(企业产品价格指数) 2010年为100 16年1月 100.1 101.0
生产者价格(企业服务价格指数) 2010年为100 16年1月 102.5 103.1
产品和服务的进口 亿日元 16年1月 74,866 78,310
产品和服务的出口 亿日元 16年1月 68,489 78,483

  

  英文原文:Monthly Economic Report

The Japanese economy is on a moderate recovery, while weakness can be seen in some areas.

Private consumption holds firm as a whole.

Business investment is almost flat.

Exports are in a weak tone.

Industrial production is flat recently.

Corporate profits are improving. Firms' judgment on current business conditions is almost flat, while cautiousness can be seen in some areas.

The employment situation is improving.

Consumer prices are rising moderately.

Concerning short-term prospects, the economy is expected toward recovery, supported by the effects of the policies, while employment and income situation is improving. However, there are downside risks of the Japanese economy including slowing down of emerging Asian economies including the Chinese economy amid the advance in the process of U.S. monetary policy normalization. In addition, attention should be given to the effects of fluctuations in the financial and capital markets under such circumstances.

(Policy stance)

The Government will make its utmost efforts to ensure the economy overcomes deflation and achieve economic revitalization and fiscal consolidation simultaneously, in addition to accelerate the reconstruction from the Great Earthquake. To this end, the Government steadily implements the "Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform 2015", the "Japan Revitalization Strategy Revised in 2015", the "Regulatory Reform Work Plan" and the "Basic Policy for Overcoming Population Decline and Vitalizing Local Economy in Japan 2015". The Government also swiftly and steadily implements "TPP Policy Plan" , "Urgent Policies to Realize a Society in Which All Citizens are Dynamically Engaged" and the FY2015 supplementary budget based on them.

The Government continuously pursues to expand the economic virtuous cycles which cover local areas, SMEs and small-scale businesses, through directing growing corporate profits towards investment, wage increase and further improvement in the employment situation by these measures.

The Government decided the following actions.

"Fiscal 2016 Economic Outlook and Basic Stance for Economic and Fiscal Management" (December 22nd, Approval of Cabinet)

"The FY2016 Budget" (December 24th , Cabinet decision)

"The Economic and Fiscal Revitalization Action Program" (December 25th ,Reported to the Cabinet)

The Government expects the Bank of Japan to achieve the price stability target of two percent in light of economic activity and prices.

Detailed explanations

1. Demand trends such as consumption and investment

Private consumption holds firm as a whole.

Private consumption holds firm as a whole. Real gross income of employees and consumer sentiment are picking up.

The Synthetic Consumption Index, which synthesizes demand-side statistics (Family Income and Expenditure Survey, etc.) and supply-side statistics (Indices of Industrial Producer's Shipments, etc.), decreased by 1.2% in November from the previous month partly due to weather effects.

Concerning short-term prospects, consumption is expected to pick up, supported by the improvement in the employment and income situations.

Business investment is almost flat.

Business investment is almost flat. The Quarterly Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry (July-September survey) show that business investment increased in the July-September quarter of 2015 by 5.4% from the previous quarter after decreasing in the April-June quarter of 2015 by 2.7%. By industry, business investment increased for manufacturers by 7.6% from the previous quarter, and increased for non-manufacturers by 4.3%. Capital Goods Shipments, supply-side statistics, show some weak movements recently.

According to the Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan (Tankan) (December survey), planned business investment for all industries and that for non-manufacturers in fiscal year 2015 are expected to increase for four consecutive years, and that for manufacturers is expected to increase for five consecutive years. According to the Business Outlook Survey (October-December survey), planned business investment in fiscal year 2015 is expected to increase for both large manufacturers and large non-manufacturers. The figures for Orders Received for Machinery, a leading indicator, show movements of picking up.

As for short-term prospects, business investment is expected to increase, mainly reflecting the improvement of corporate profits.

Housing construction is almost flat.

Housing construction is almost flat. Construction of owned houses, houses for rent, and houses for sale are almost flat. In addition, the total number of sales of condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area is almost flat.

As for short-term prospects, housing construction is expected to remain flat for the time being.

Public investment is decreasing moderately.

Public investment is decreasing moderately. The amount of contracted public works in December decreased by 9.6% and the amount of public works orders received in November decreased by 2.0% from the previous year. The amount of public construction completed in November decreased by 5.1% from the previous year, and by 1.9% from the previous month.

As for short-term prospects, public investment is expected to continue to decline moderately.

Exports are in a weak tone. Imports are almost flat. The deficit in the balance of goods and services is on a decreasing trend.

Exports are in a weak tone. By region, exports to Asia and other regions are in a weak tone. Exports to the U.S. are decreasing moderately. Exports to the EU are almost flat. As for short-term prospects, exports are expected to pick up gradually, mainly reflecting the moderate recovery of overseas economies. However, it should be noted that there are risks of a downturn in overseas economies.

Imports are almost flat. By region, imports from Asia, the U.S. and the EU are almost flat. As for short-term prospects, imports are expected to pick up gradually. The deficit in the balance of goods and services is on a decreasing trend.

The deficit in the balance of trade in November turned to a surplus, as export values increased and import values decreased. The deficit in the balance of services decreased.

2. Corporate activities and employment

Industrial production is flat recently.

Industrial production is flat recently. The Indices of Industrial Production decreased by 0.9% from the previous month in November. The Indices of Industrial Inventories increased by 0.4% from the previous month in November. The Survey of Production Forecast in Manufacturing expects an increase of 0.9% in December, and an increase of 6.0% in January.

By industry, transport equipment shows movements of picking up. General-purpose, production and business oriented machinery are decreasing recently. Electronic parts and devices are flat.

As for short-term prospects, production is expected to pick up gradually mainly reflecting the moderate recovery of overseas economies.

Corporate profits are improving. Firms' judgment on current business conditions is almost flat, while cautiousness can be seen in some areas. The number of corporate bankruptcies is almost flat.

Corporate profits are improving. According to the Quarterly Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry (July-September survey), corporate profits during the July-September quarter of 2015 increased by 9.0% from the previous year and decreased by 6.3% from the previous quarter. By size of company, large and medium-sized companies saw an increase of 6.4% in corporate profits from the previous year, and small companies saw an increase of 16.8%. According to the BOJ Tankan (December survey), sales in fiscal year 2015 are expected to decrease, while current profits are expected to increase for four consecutive years.

Firms' judgment on current business conditions is almost flat, while cautiousness can be seen in some areas. The Tankan (December survey) revealed that firms' judgment on current business conditions is almost flat for all enterprises in all industries. Firms' judgment on future business conditions, which indicates the business condition as of March, deteriorated from that on current business conditions. According to the corporate activity-related DI of the Economy Watchers Survey (December survey), current and prospective business conditions rose.

The number of corporate bankruptcies is almost flat.

The employment situation is improving.

The employment situation is improving. The total unemployment rate was 3.3% in November, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The total unemployment rate of those aged 15 to 24 was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The labor force and the number of employed persons decreased, while the number of unemployed persons increased.

The number of employees is on an increasing trend. The number of new job offers is increasing. The effective ratio of job offers to applicants is rising. Overtime hours worked in the manufacturing industry are almost flat.

As for the movement of wages, contractual cash earnings are almost flat. The total amount of cash earnings is increasing moderately. As for short-term prospects, the employment situation is expected to improve.

3. Prices and the financial market

Producer prices are declining moderately. Consumer prices are rising moderately.

Producer prices are declining moderately.

Consumer prices, in terms of general, excluding fresh food, petroleum products and other specific components (referred to as "core core"), are rising moderately.

According to the Monthly Consumer Confidence Survey (general households), the ratio of households which forecast a rise in prices was 81.1% in December.

As for short-term prospects, consumer prices (core core) are expected to rise moderately for the time being.

As for stock prices, the Nikkei Stock Average declined from the 18,800-yen level to the 16,900-yen level. The yen against the U.S. dollar moved in the direction of appreciation from the 121-yen level to the 117-yen level.

来源:日本内阁府

京ICP证000069号

中经网数据有限公司 版权所有
本网站由中国网络通信有限公司(CNCnet)提供网络带宽
建议使用 800*600 分辨率浏览