巴黎银行:德国经济走势恶化
2016-03-17 09:15:47
巴黎银行:德国经济走势恶化(2016.03.22)

  提要:2014年到2015年上半年,德国企业部门面临的宏观经济环境颇为有利。2015年,德国经济活动保持了稳健走势,虽然外贸由2014年的增长转为停滞,但其对德国经济增长的拖累完全被内需的旺盛势头所抵消。然而,随着经济前景的恶化,ZEW和IFO经济周期指标都已开始下跌。巴黎银行目前预计,2016德国GDP增速可能会由2015年的1.4%降至1.3%;但IFO预期指数的急剧恶化突出地表明,德国经济减速的力度和持续时间都可能超出当前的预计。

  (外脑精华·北京)直到2015年上半年,德国企业部门面临的宏观经济环境一直颇为有利。2015年,德国经济活动保持稳健走势,虽然全球贸易陷入停滞,但其对德国经济增长的拖累完全被内需的旺盛势头所抵消。然而,随着经济前景的恶化,ZEW和IFO经济周期指标都已开始下跌。IFO预期指数的急剧恶化突出地表明,德国经济减速的力度和持续时间都可能超出巴黎银行的预计水平。

  良好宏观经济环境持续到2015年上半年

  2014年德国企业部门面临的宏观经济环境颇为有利。产能利用率全年都在正常区间之中波动。工资水平明显上涨,但又不算过于迅速。而且,石油及其他大宗商品价格急剧下跌。2014年,德国企业的息税折旧及摊销前利润(EBITDA)同比增长4.9%。同时,企业破产数连续第5年减少,降至20多年以来的最低点。2015年上半年的数据显示,宏观经济环境保持了良好状态,企业盈利同比增长6%左右。

  出口下滑的影响被旺盛内需所抵消

  德国企业部门稳健走势的动力首先来自外贸迅速扩张和欧元贬值。制造商对于出口订单的评估并不那么消极。2014年,出口增长4%。然而,在2015年期间,出口公司的命运已经严重恶化。出口订单的评估已经恶化,欧元区内的竞争能力已近疲软。根据本周公布的国民账户详尽,2015年3季度出口环比仅增长0.3%,4季度环比下降0.6%。

  外部需求疲软已经通过国内需求增强而补偿,国内需求得到实际可支配收入强劲改善的支持,2015年提升2.8%。个人消费提升接近2%,为2000年以来最高。因此,制造商很难改变他们对于订单和商业周期指数的观点,IFO气候指数仍然处于相对较高的水平。然而,ZEW经济观点指标,基于金融市场参与者民意调查的领先指标,2015年下半年开始下降。ZEW指数比IFO指数更加不稳定,但是对于未来的事情是一个良好的预告。自2016年初以来,IFO指数同样下降。新近公布的2月份该指数达到105.7,比2014年初达到的峰值低5个百分点。

  经济走势有所恶化

  值得注意的是,实际经济环境并没有像综合指数中前景部分那样大规模下降。IFO预期指数在过去两个月下降非常引人注目,能够比得上2008年9-10月的下降,当时为金融危机鼎盛时期。这一次前景指数的恶化,同新兴市场,特别是中国增长放缓相关。

  尽管前景恶化,ZEW和IFO指标表明目前商业环境仍处于相对较高的水平。2月份,IFO指数表明经济活动相比之前的月份更加强劲。然而,前景提升的不确定性可能影响商业活动,这将影响生产、库存和资本支出的决定。通常,IFO目前商业指数反应了预期指数之后3个月。目前环境指数可能表现低迷的增长。

  2016年1季度,德国GDP增长率可能会降至仅仅0.2%,2016全年增速可能会由2015年的1.4%降至1.3%。然而,在去年11月,巴黎银行还预计2016年增长将加速至1.6%。鉴于1、2月预期的显著下降,这表明放缓可能更加显著并且比我们目前预计持续更久。

  

  英文原文:Businesses on red alert

Up to the first half of 2015, the German corporate sector faced very favourable conditions.

In 2015, economic activity held up well, as the stagnation in world trade was more than offset by buoyant domestic demand.

Both the ZEW and IFO business cycle indicators have started to decline because of a deteriorating outlook.

The sharp deterioration in the IFO expectations index highlights the risk that the slowdown could be more pronounced and longer lasting than assumed in our scenario.

The German business sector faced a relatively favourable macroeconomic environment in 2014. Production capacity utilisation fluctuated within a normal range during the entire year. Wages rose perceptibly but not excessively. In addition, prices for oil and other commodities fell sharply. In 2014, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) rose by 4.9% on the previous year. Moreover, business insolvencies declined for the fifth consecutive year, reaching the lowest level for more than 20 years. Data for the first half of 2015 (latest data available), confirmed the continuation of this trend, with earnings rising by around 6% from a year earlier.

Business strength was initially driven by the rapid expansion of world trade and the weakening of the euro. Manufacturers became less negative as to the appraisal of their export orders. In 2014, exports increased by 4%. However, in the course of 2015, the fortunes of the exporting firms have clearly deteriorated. The appreciation of export orders has deteriorated while their competitive position within the eurozone has weakened. According to this week's detailed release of the national accounts, exports increased by only 0.3% in Q3 2015 and declined by 0.6% in Q4 2015 from the preceding quarter.

The weakness in external demand has been compensated by strengthening domestic demand, underpinned by a strong improvement of real disposable income, up 2.8% in 2015. Private consumption rose by almost 2%, a highest since 2000. As a result, manufacturers hardly changed their opinion on their orders and business cycle indicators such as the IFO climate index remained at a relatively elevated level. However, the ZEW economic sentiment indicator, a leading indicator based on a poll among financial market participants, started to slide in the second half of 2015. The ZEW index is much more volatile than the IFO index, but often a good harbinger of things to come. Since the beginning of 2016, the IFO index has also declined. The February index, released earlier this week, reached 105.7, 5 points below its most recent peak reached in early 2014.

The interesting thing to note is that decline in not so much due to actual business conditions, but to the outlook component of the composite index. The fall in the IFO expectations index over the past two months was quite impressive and comparable with the decline in September - October 2008, at the height of the financial crisis. This time, the deterioration in the outlook indices has been related to the growth slowdown in the emerging markets and in particular in China.

Despite the deteriorating outlook, the current business conditions component of both the ZEW and IFO indicators have remained at rather elevated levels. In February, the IFO index even signalled stronger activity on the preceding month. Nevertheless, the growing uncertainty concerning the outlook is likely to impact business activity soon, as it will affect decisions on production, stock building and capital spending. Usually, the IFO current business index reacts with a lag of about three months on the expectations index. The current conditions index may, therefore, soon signal weaker growth.

In Q1 2016, GDP growth could ease to only 0.2%, and to 1.3% for 2016 as a whole, compared with 1.4% in 2015 (corrected for calendar days). Back in November, we still expected growth to accelerate to 1.6% in 2016. Given the sharp declines in expectations in January and February, this suggests that the slowing could be much more pronounced and long-lasting than in our current scenario.

来源:巴黎银行,作者:Raymond Van der Putten
作者:Raymond

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