美国供应管理协会:4月份美国非制造业NMI指数报告
2014-05-08 15:53:18
美国供应管理协会:4月份美国非制造业NMI指数报告(2014.05.08)

  提要:美国供应管理协会(ISM)最新发布的《非制造业ISM商业报告》显示,2014年4月份,非制造业指数(NMI)为55.2%,比上月的53.1%上升2.1个百分点,显示美国非制造业经济活动连续第51个月保持增长。在分项指数之中,非制造业商务活动指数猛增7.5个百分点,至60.9%。新订单指数上升4.8个百分点,至58.2%。就业指数下降2.3个百分点,至51.3%。价格指数上升2.5个百分点,至60.8%。3月份非制造业有14个行业实现了增长。

  (外脑精华·北京)美国供应管理协会(ISM)最新发布的《非制造业ISM商业报告》显示,2014年4月份,美国非制造业经济活动连续第51个月保持增长。

  4月NMI指数为55.2%,比上月的53.1%高2.1个百分点。非制造业商业活动指数为60.9%,比3月53.4%高7.5个百分点,表明该指数连续第57个月增长,且增速有所加快。新订单指数增至58.2%,比3月53.4%高4.8个百分点。就业指数比3月53.6%下降2.3个百分点至51.3%,表明该指数连续第二个月增长,但增速放缓。价格指数增长2.5个百分点,从3月58.3%升至60.8%,表明4月价格增长速度高于3月。NMI指数显示,4月14个非制造业部门报告增长。尽管天气对于许多行业造成了影响,但大多数受访者表示商业环境和经济情况均有好转。



表1:2014年4月美国非制造业与制造业调查对比
  非制造业 制造业
指数 4月 3月 百分点
的变化
方向 变化速度 当前趋势
持续月数
4月 3月 百分点
的变化
NMI/PMI 55.2 53.1 +2.1 增长 加速 51 54.9 53.7 +1.2
商务活动/生产 60.9 53.4 +7.5 增长 加速 57 55.7 55.9 -0.2
新订单 58.2 53.4 +4.8 增长 加速 57 55.1 55.1 0.0
就业 51.3 53.6 -2.3 增长 减慢 2 54.7 51.1 +3.6
供应商配送 50.5 52.0 -1.5 下降 减慢 6 55.9 54.0 +1.9
库存 55.5 48.0 +7.5 增长 由下降转为增长 1 53.0 52.5 +0.5
价格 60.8 58.3 +2.5 提升 加速 55 56.5 59.0 -2.5
积压订单 49.0 51.5 -2.5 下降 有增长专为下降 1 55.5 57.5 -2.0
新出口订单 57.0 49.5 +7.5 增长 由下降转为增长 1 57.0 55.5 +1.5
进口 55.5 50.5 +5.0 增长 加速 2 58.0 54.5 +3.5
库存评估 65.0 60.5 +4.5 过高 加速 203 N/A N/A N/A
客户库存 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 42.0 42.0 0.0
注:(1)ISM非制造业报告对商务活动、新订单、价格与就业指数进行季节性调整;制造业报告对新订单、生产、就业、供应商配送时间以及库存进行季节性调整;(2)当前趋势持续月数指沿当前趋势运行的月份数目;(3)N/A为不存在相关数据。

  非制造业指数。2014年4月,NMI为55.2%,比3月的53.1%增长2.1个百分点,这意味着非制造业连续第51个月增长。作为扩散指数,NMI高于50%意味着非制造业正在扩张,低于50%意味着非制造业正在收缩。



表2:最近12个月NMI指数
月份 NMI 月份 NMI 月份 NMI
2014.04 55.2 2013.11 54.1 2013.06 53.4
2014.03 53.1 2013.10 55.1 2013.05 54.0
2014.02 51.6 2013.09 54.5 12个月平均: 54.3
2014.01 54.0 2013.08 57.9 最高: 57.9
2013.12 53.0 2013.07 55.9 最低: 51.6

  商务活动指数。4月份,ISM非制造业商务活动指数为60.9%,比上月53.4%的水平增长7.5%。14个行业报告了商务活动的扩张;3个行业报告了商务活动的收缩。



表3:2014年4月商务活动指数
商务活动 上升(%) 不变(%) 下降(%) 指数
2014.04 37 54 9 60.9
2014.03 31 54 15 53.4
2014.02 30 51 19 54.6
2014.01 27 52 21 56.3

  新订单指数。4月份,非制造业新订单在连续57个月实现增长。ISM非制造业新订单指数比上月53.4%上升了4.8个百分点,至58.2%。



表4:2014年4月新订单指数
新订单 上升(%) 不变(%) 下降(%) 指数
2014.04 33 55 12 58.2
2014.03 29 57 14 53.4
2014.02 26 56 18 51.3
2014.01 22 55 23 50.9

  就业指数。4月份,非制造业就业在连续第二个月增长。ISM非制造业就业指数为51.3%。比上月53.6%下降了2.3个百分点。13个行业报告就业增加,5个行业就业下降。



表5:2014年4月就业指数
就业 上升(%) 不变(%) 下降(%) 指数
2014.04 21 68 11 51.3
2014.03 25 61 14 53.6
2014.02 16 65 19 47.5
2014.01 18 70 12 56.4

  供应商配送指数。4月份,ISM非制造业供应商配送指数为50.5%,是连续第6个月减慢。该指数高于50%意味着供应商配送速度减缓。



表6:2014年4月供应商配送指数
供应商配送 减缓(%) 不变(%) 加快(%) 指数
2014.04 5 91 4 50.5
2014.03 9 86 5 52.0
2014.02 11 84 5 53.0
2014.01 11 83 6 52.5

  库存指数。4月份,库存指数在一个月的下降后开始增长。ISM非制造业库存指数为55.5%,较上月48%增长7.5个百分点。本月的所有回复者之中,有29%称其没有库存,或不计算库存。



表7:2014年4月库存指数
库存 上升(%) 不变(%) 下降(%) 指数
2014.04 22 67 11 55.5
2014.03 15 66 19 48.0
2014.02 15 71 14 50.5
2014.01 18 65 17 50.5

  价格指数。4月份,非制造业企业的原材料和服务购进价格连续第55个月增长。ISM非制造业价格指数为60.8%,比上月58.3%的数值上升了2.5个百分点。本月有31%的回复者称购进价格上涨,65%称价格与上期持平,4%称价格下跌。



表8:2014年4月价格指数
价格 上涨(%) 不变(%) 下跌(%) 指数
2014.04 31 65 4 60.8
2014.03 28 68 4 58.3
2014.02 23 71 6 53.7
2014.01 21 76 3 57.1

  积压订单指数。4月份,ISM非制造业积压订单指数连续第2个月增长后再次下降,为49%,较之前一个月51.5%跌落2.5个百分点。本月有36%的回复者称其不计算积压订单。



表9:2014年4月积压订单指数
积压订单 上升(%) 不变(%) 下降(%) 指数
2014.04 14 70 16 49.0
2014.03 17 69 14 51.5
2014.02 15 74 11 52.0
2014.01 13 72 15 49.0

  新出口订单指数。4月份美国非制造业新出口订单在连续3个月收缩之后迎来增长。ISM非制造业新出口订单指数为57%,较上月49.5%增长7.5个百分点。本月有66%的回复者称其不接受国外订单,或不单独统计此类订单。



表10:2014年4月新出口订单指数
新出口订单 上升(%) 不变(%) 下降(%) 指数
2014.04 23 68 9 57.0
2014.03 11 77 12 49.5
2014.02 9 77 14 47.5
2014.01 15 68 17 49.0

  进口指数。4月份,非制造业进口指数连续2个月增长,为55.5%,表明进口增长率比上个月50.5%增长5个百分点。本月有54%的回复者称其不使用进口物资,或不记录进口物资的使用情况。



表11:2014年4月进口指数
进口 上升(%) 不变(%) 下降(%) 指数
2014.04 17 77 6 55.5
2014.03 12 77 11 50.5
2014.02 7 80 13 47.0
2014.01 9 78 13 48.0

  库存评估指数。4月份,ISM非制造业库存评估指数为65%,比上月60.5%增长了4.5个百分点,这表明企业仍然认为库存水平过高。报告者中,31%认为当前库存水平过高,1%认为库存水平过低,68%认为库存水平适中。



表12:2014年4月库存评估指数
库存评估 过高(%) 适当(%) 过低(%) 指数
2014.04 31 68 1 65.0
2014.03 28 65 7 60.5
2014.02 28 68 4 62.0
2014.01 31 64 5 63.0

  英文原文:April 2014 Non-Manufacturing ISM(r) Report On Business(r)

(Tempe, Arizona) - Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in April for the 51st consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM(r) Report On Business(r).

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management(r) (ISM(r)) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI(r) registered 55.2 percent in April, 2.1 percentage points higher than March's reading of 53.1 percent. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased substantially to 60.9 percent, which is 7.5 percentage points higher than the March reading of 53.4 percent, reflecting growth for the 57th consecutive month at a much faster rate. The New Orders Index registered 58.2 percent, 4.8 percentage points higher than the reading of 53.4 percent registered in March. The Employment Index decreased 2.3 percentage points to 51.3 percent from the March reading of 53.6 percent and indicates growth for the second consecutive month, but at a slower rate. The Prices Index increased 2.5 percentage points from the March reading of 58.3 percent to 60.8 percent, indicating prices increased at a faster rate in April when compared to March. According to the NMI(r), 14 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in April. The majority of survey respondents' comments indicate that both business conditions and the economy are improving."

NMI(r)

In April, the NMI(r) registered 55.2 percent, an increase of 2.1 percentage points when compared to March's reading of 53.1 percent indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the 51st consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

Business Activity

ISM(r)'s Business Activity Index in April registered 60.9 percent, a noteworthy increase of 7.5 percentage points higher than March's reading of 53.4 percent. Fourteen industries reported increased business activity, and three industries reported decreased activity for the month of April. Comments from respondents include: "Better economy, increased sales" and "Improvement in the weather."

The industries reporting growth of business activity in April - listed in order - are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Educational Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Information; and Real Estate, Rental & Leasing. The industries reporting decreased business activity in April are: Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

New Orders

ISM(r)'s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index grew in April for the 57th consecutive month. The index registered 58.2 percent, an increase of 4.8 percentage points from the March reading of 53.4 percent. Comments from respondents include: "Solid sales over the next few months" and "Improved business activity/more marketing effort."

The 13 industries reporting growth of new orders in April - listed in order - are: Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Educational Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Public Administration; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; and Utilities. The five industries reporting contraction of new orders in April are: Mining; Other Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Management of Companies & Support Services.

Employment

Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in April for the second consecutive month. ISM(r)'s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 51.3 percent, which reflects a decrease of 2.3 percentage points when compared to March's reading of 53.6 percent. Thirteen industries reported increased employment, and five industries reported decreased employment. Comments from respondents include: "Added jobs - new work awards" and "Doing more with fewer people; focusing on training/retraining."

The 13 industries reporting an increase in employment in April - listed in order - are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; and Finance & Insurance. The five industries reporting a reduction in employment in April are: Mining; Other Services; Educational Services; Utilities; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

Supplier Deliveries

The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 50.5 percent in April, indicating that deliveries were slower for the sixth consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

The four industries reporting slower deliveries in April are: Other Services; Retail Trade; Construction; and Wholesale Trade. The five industries reporting faster deliveries in April are: Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; and Health Care & Social Assistance. Nine industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in April compared to March.

Inventories

ISM(r)'s Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index indicated substantial growth in April after contracting for one month. The index registered 55.5 percent, which is 7.5 percentage points higher than the 48 percent reported in March. Of the total respondents in April, 29 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: "Rightsizing stock levels" and "Materials to support scheduled maintenance projects."

The 12 industries reporting an increase in inventories in April - listed in order - are: Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Other Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Construction; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Information. The four industries reporting decreases in inventories in April are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Retail Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

Prices

Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased materials and services increased in April for the 55th consecutive month. ISM(r)'s Non-Manufacturing Prices Index for April registered 60.8 percent, 2.5 percentage points higher than the 58.3 percent reported in March. The percentage of respondents reporting higher prices is 31 percent, the percentage indicating no change in prices paid is 65 percent, and 4 percent of the respondents reported lower prices.

Fifteen non-manufacturing industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of April, in the following order: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Retail Trade; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Construction; Public Administration; Transportation & Warehousing; and Finance & Insurance. The two industries reporting a decrease in prices paid during April are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Information.

Backlog of Orders

ISM(r)'s Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index contracted in April after two consecutive months of growth. The index registered 49 percent, which is 2.5 percentage points lower than the 51.5 percent reported in March. Of the total respondents in April, 36 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.

The six industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in April - listed in order - are: Construction; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The seven industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs in April - listed in order - are: Mining; Other Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; and Public Administration.

New Export Orders

Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the United States by domestically based personnel grew in April after three consecutive months of contraction. The New Export Orders Index for April registered 57 percent, which is 7.5 percentage points higher than the 49.5 percent reported in March. Of the total respondents in April, 66 percent indicated they either do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the United States.

The five industries reporting an increase in new export orders in April are: Construction; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Finance & Insurance; and Wholesale Trade. The two industries reporting a decrease in export orders in April are: Accommodation & Food Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Ten industries reported no change in export orders in April compared to March.

Imports

The ISM(r) Non-Manufacturing Imports Index grew in April for the second consecutive month. This month's reading at 55.5 percent is 5 percentage points higher than the 50.5 percent that was reported in March. Fifty-four percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The eight industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of April - listed in order - are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Accommodation & Food Services. The two industries reporting a decrease in imports for the month of April are: Transportation & Warehousing; and Finance & Insurance. Seven industries reported no change in imports for the month of April compared to March.

Inventory Sentiment

The ISM(r) Non-Manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index in April registered 65 percent, which is 4.5 percentage points higher than the 60.5 percent reported in March. This indicates that respondents believe their inventories are still too high at this time. In April, 31 percent of respondents said their inventories were too high, 1 percent said their inventories were too low, and 68 percent said their inventories were about right.

The 12 industries reporting a feeling that their inventories are too high in April - listed in order - are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Utilities; Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Accommodation & Food Services. No industry reported a feeling that their inventories are too low. Five industries reported no change in inventory sentiment for the month of April compared to March.

来源:美国供应管理协会,2014.5.5

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