然而，此类担忧或许是错误的。瑞信认为，中国决策者不会放任人民币持续贬值，因为中国无法承受人民币过度贬值可能引发的资本外逃。积极的贸易和经常账户数据同样表明将反转。3月中国进出口出人意料的下降，形成了77亿美元贸易顺差，为2009年以来最大规模。1季度整体经常账户顺差，包括贸易数据减去净现金调拨，为72亿美元。瑞信货币分析师Ray Farris和Trang Thuy Le在4月10日报告中称“中国大规模贸易持续以及整体支付盈余平衡是我们对货币假设性观点的核心驱动力。”
英文原文：China’s Yuan: Not Down for Long
The question of whether the yuan could challenge the dollar as the world's dominant reserve currency is not exactly a new one. China's emergence as the world's largest trading nation, coupled with ballooning U.S. public debt, has only served to increase the frequency of its asking. But the recent performance of both the Chinese economy and its currency have put a damper on that talk of late: amid slowing economic growth and its own increasing debt, the yuan has slid 3.2 percent against the dollar so far this year. But economic data suggest the yuan is about to turn the corner and strengthen over the next few months. In which case, the question would once again return to the fore.
The currency, also known as the renminbi, fell to 6.2443 against the dollar on Monday from 6.0517 at the start of 2014. While its depreciation is at least in part due to concerns over economic growth, it also appears to be the result of direct intervention by Chinese policymakers. The People's Bank of China has been driving down the yuan in a bid to deter short-term speculation by investors betting that it would continue rising, according to Credit Suisse. "The moves have been engineered by the central bank to break the 'one-way focus' on appreciation," says Dong Tao, Credit Suisse's China economist. "The central bank has had great success in teaching speculators a lesson."
U.S. officials see additional motives, and have suggested that the Asian giant is weakening its currency in order to bolster exports. In an April 15 report to Congress, the U.S. Treasury called on China to make good on its promise to relinquish the currency to market forces. "Recent developments in the renminbi exchange rate would raise particularly serious concerns if they presage renewed resistance to currency appreciation and a retreat from China's announced policy of reducing intervention and allowing the exchange rate to reflect market forces," the report said.
Still, such concerns may be misplaced. According to Credit Suisse, Beijing is unlikely to allow the yuan to keep falling because it can't afford the capital flight that might occur if it weakens too much. Positive trade and current account data also point to a turnaround. An unexpectedly large drop in Chinese imports and exports in March generated a trade surplus of $7.7 billion, the strongest for that month since 2009. And the overall current account surplus, which includes trade data plus net cash transfers, was $7.2 billion for the first quarter. "The persistence of China's large trade and overall balance of payments surplus is the core driver of our constructive view on the currency," Credit Suisse currency analysts Ray Farris and Trang Thuy Le wrote in an April 10 report.
Investors were justifiably surprised by first quarter growth of 7.4 percent, the slowest pace in a year and a half. But authorities announced moderate stimulus measures earlier this month that include tax relief and spending on housing and rail projects. And last week, they revealed plans to start building a number of large energy projects including hydropower and nuclear plants. The likely outcome of those moves is that the disappointing first quarter GDP figure will be the low point for the year, Credit Suisse says. "The government has begun to take action to stabilize growth," Farris and Le wrote. "This would work to improve sentiment and reduce policy risk over the next several months."
Of course, exports and growth could still continue to deteriorate in April, which would make it difficult for the central bank to allow the currency to strengthen immediately. Even in that case, Credit Suisse argues, policymakers will eventually allow for a rebound, giving investors reason to be bullish on the yuan in the medium term. Credit Suisse expects the yuan to rise to 6.10 against the dollar over the next three months and to 6.07 over the next 12. At which point the whole reserve currency conversation would start anew.