Financialist:人民币下跌或已接近结束
2014-05-13 15:36:51
Financialist:人民币下跌或已接近结束(2014.05.13)

  提要:虽然近期的人民币贬值至少在一定程度上是由于市场对中国经济增长走势的担忧,但看起来中国决策者对汇率的直接干预也发挥了作用。中国央行可能难以允许人民币立刻走强,但瑞信认为,决策者最终将允许人民币反弹,从而投资者提供一个中期看好人民币的理由。瑞信预计,未来3个月中,人民币兑美元汇率将回升至6.10,未来12个月间将进一步回升到6.07。届时,关于人民币挑战美元的全球主导储备货币地位的讨论将再次升温。

  (外脑精华·北京)人民币能否对美元的世界主导性储备货币地位构成挑战并不是新问题。随着中国成为世界最大贸易国以及美国国债持续膨胀,这个问题日益受到关注。然而,近期中国经济和人民币的走势对此问题构成了质疑:随着经济增速下滑、本国债务增长,自今年年初以来,人民币对美元汇率已下跌3.2%。然而,经济数据显示,人民币即将见底,未来几个月将有所回升。果真如此,那么人民币挑战美元地位的问题将再次引起关注。

  市场担忧和政府干预共同推动人民币贬值

  到2014年5月5日,人民币兑美元汇率已由年初的6.0517下跌至6.2443。虽然近期的人民币贬值至少在一定程度上是由于市场对中国经济增长走势的担忧,但看起来中国决策者对汇率的直接干预也发挥了作用。瑞信经济学家陶冬表示,中国央行此举旨在打破人民币单边升值预期;央行成功地教训了投机者。

  美国官方则认为中国引导人民币贬值还有其他动机,并指出此举是为了刺激中国出口。在4月15日向国会的报告中,美国财政部要求中国承诺让市场力量决定人民币汇率。报告称“近期人民币汇率的发展将引起严重的担忧,市场担心其再次抵抗货币升值并撤出减少干预以及允许汇率反应市场自由运行的政策。”

  中国不会放任人民币持续贬值

  然而,此类担忧或许是错误的。瑞信认为,中国决策者不会放任人民币持续贬值,因为中国无法承受人民币过度贬值可能引发的资本外逃。积极的贸易和经常账户数据同样表明将反转。3月中国进出口出人意料的下降,形成了77亿美元贸易顺差,为2009年以来最大规模。1季度整体经常账户顺差,包括贸易数据减去净现金调拨,为72亿美元。瑞信货币分析师Ray Farris和Trang Thuy Le在4月10日报告中称“中国大规模贸易持续以及整体支付盈余平衡是我们对货币假设性观点的核心驱动力。”

  2014年1季度中国经济增速仅为7.4%,为一年半以来的最低点,投资者理应对此感到吃惊。然而,5月初,中国决策者以宣布了温和的经济刺激措施,包括税费减免和住房及铁路项目的支出。近日,当局透露将开始建立大规模能源项目,包括水力发电站和核电站。瑞信表示这些举措的结果可能是,1季度令人失望的GDP数据将成为全年最低。Farris和Le表示“政府开始采取措施稳定增长,这将有助于改善意见,并降低未来几个月的政策风险。”

  当然,中国4月份的出口和经济增长仍有可能继续恶化,这种情况下中国央行将难以允许人民币立刻走强。即便如此,瑞信认为,中国决策者最终将允许人民币反弹,从而投资者提供一个中期看好人民币的理由。瑞信预计,未来3个月中,人民币兑美元汇率将回升至6.10,未来12个月间将进一步回升到6.07。届时,关于全球主导储备货币的讨论将再次升温。

  英文原文:China’s Yuan: Not Down for Long

The question of whether the yuan could challenge the dollar as the world's dominant reserve currency is not exactly a new one. China's emergence as the world's largest trading nation, coupled with ballooning U.S. public debt, has only served to increase the frequency of its asking. But the recent performance of both the Chinese economy and its currency have put a damper on that talk of late: amid slowing economic growth and its own increasing debt, the yuan has slid 3.2 percent against the dollar so far this year. But economic data suggest the yuan is about to turn the corner and strengthen over the next few months. In which case, the question would once again return to the fore.

The currency, also known as the renminbi, fell to 6.2443 against the dollar on Monday from 6.0517 at the start of 2014. While its depreciation is at least in part due to concerns over economic growth, it also appears to be the result of direct intervention by Chinese policymakers. The People's Bank of China has been driving down the yuan in a bid to deter short-term speculation by investors betting that it would continue rising, according to Credit Suisse. "The moves have been engineered by the central bank to break the 'one-way focus' on appreciation," says Dong Tao, Credit Suisse's China economist. "The central bank has had great success in teaching speculators a lesson."

U.S. officials see additional motives, and have suggested that the Asian giant is weakening its currency in order to bolster exports. In an April 15 report to Congress, the U.S. Treasury called on China to make good on its promise to relinquish the currency to market forces. "Recent developments in the renminbi exchange rate would raise particularly serious concerns if they presage renewed resistance to currency appreciation and a retreat from China's announced policy of reducing intervention and allowing the exchange rate to reflect market forces," the report said.

Still, such concerns may be misplaced. According to Credit Suisse, Beijing is unlikely to allow the yuan to keep falling because it can't afford the capital flight that might occur if it weakens too much. Positive trade and current account data also point to a turnaround. An unexpectedly large drop in Chinese imports and exports in March generated a trade surplus of $7.7 billion, the strongest for that month since 2009. And the overall current account surplus, which includes trade data plus net cash transfers, was $7.2 billion for the first quarter. "The persistence of China's large trade and overall balance of payments surplus is the core driver of our constructive view on the currency," Credit Suisse currency analysts Ray Farris and Trang Thuy Le wrote in an April 10 report.

Investors were justifiably surprised by first quarter growth of 7.4 percent, the slowest pace in a year and a half. But authorities announced moderate stimulus measures earlier this month that include tax relief and spending on housing and rail projects. And last week, they revealed plans to start building a number of large energy projects including hydropower and nuclear plants. The likely outcome of those moves is that the disappointing first quarter GDP figure will be the low point for the year, Credit Suisse says. "The government has begun to take action to stabilize growth," Farris and Le wrote. "This would work to improve sentiment and reduce policy risk over the next several months."

Of course, exports and growth could still continue to deteriorate in April, which would make it difficult for the central bank to allow the currency to strengthen immediately. Even in that case, Credit Suisse argues, policymakers will eventually allow for a rebound, giving investors reason to be bullish on the yuan in the medium term. Credit Suisse expects the yuan to rise to 6.10 against the dollar over the next three months and to 6.07 over the next 12. At which point the whole reserve currency conversation would start anew.

来源:Financialist,2014.3.5,作者:Jens Erik Gould
作者:Jens

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