Financialist:能源改革将给墨西哥经济注入活力
2014-07-03 15:33:11
Financialist:能源改革将给墨西哥经济注入活力(2014.07.03)

  提要:为扭转能源行业每况愈下的趋势,墨西哥国会在去年年底通过了能源改革法案,从而打破了存在75年之久的能源垄断体制。墨西哥能源改革具有巨大的潜在影响,有望吸引巨额外资和最先进的开采技术,进而促进就业和消费需求增长。能源改革法案同近期通过的劳动力市场、电讯业及金融业改革法案将共同推动墨西哥经济走向繁荣。

  (外脑精华·北京)墨西哥打破石油业垄断

  在过去的75年中,墨西哥的石油和天然气储量一直是私营能源企业梦寐以求却无法触及的资源。不过,随着墨西哥国会在去年年底通过了取消石油国有化垄断体制的变革性法案,这种状况发生了改变。在扭转墨西哥能源产业每况愈下现状这一目标驱使下,外国企业很快将能够带来墨西哥在开采深水油气和页岩油气方面所急需的最先进技术和专业知识。能源改革固然是件大事,但其只不过是整体局势发生巨变的一个缩影。能源改革法案和近期批准通过的其他改革法案的潜在影响带来的东西远远不止于此,甚至将会彻底改变墨西哥经济局势。

  由于许多行业缺乏竞争,墨西哥经济走势在拉美地区一直滞后,1994-2013年期间墨西哥GDP的年均增速仅为2.6%。依据墨西哥政府的预测,能源改革法案可以使得2015-2018年期间墨西哥GDP年均增速提高0.7个百分点。如果在算上最近颁布的劳动力市场、电讯业及金融业改革法案的影响,这些改革可能将使得墨西哥中期内的实际GDP年均增速提高1.7个百分点至4.5%左右。瑞士信贷负责研究墨西哥经济的Alonso Cervera表示:“果真如此的话,这些改革无疑将造福于墨西哥全体民众。”

  能源改革影响辐射多个领域

  能源改革究竟会对墨西哥经济产生多大刺激作用呢?在最基本的层面上,能源改革可以使得墨西哥石油产量在2025年增至350万桶/日。这将是一个巨大的变化,由于现有油井枯竭以及投资严重不足,墨西哥石油产量已从2004年的330万桶/日降至目前的区区250万桶/日。通过邀请跨国企业参与勘探墨西哥湾深水油气以及美墨边境地区的页岩气储区,墨西哥每年可以引来近100亿美元的新增外国直接投资。而且墨西哥政府希望到2025年时,持续递增的外国直接投资能够创造250万个直接和间接就业岗位。美洲委员会能源主任Christian Gomez表示:“就业增长将对墨西哥经济产生一系列反响。”

  预期的经济和就业增长格局的巨变将会会壮大墨西哥新兴中产阶级的队伍,并且推动消费需求的增长,从而带动零售企业收入的增长,逐渐引起投资者对墨西哥私营企业和上市公司的投资兴趣。参与能源行业振兴的墨西哥小型能源企业也将有可能获准公开发行股票,这将有助于推动历来由少数大型企业主导的墨西哥股市走向多元化。去年,Infraestructura Energetica新星SAB,美国Sempra能源公司旗下的墨西哥Infraestructura Energetica Nova SAB公司成为首个在墨西哥证交所上市的墨西哥能源企业。Cervera.表示:“墨西哥证交所一直被固有的那些上市公司所掌控,而且曾经多年不曾启动过IPO。对金融市场的结构性改革的最大影响来自寻求在债券或股票市场募集资金的新企业。”

  墨西哥债券市场也有望变得更加活跃。专门从事勘探开发和服务的墨西哥小型企业可能会在国内债券市场募集资金来扩张规模,诸如旨在给振兴中的能源行业提供服务的餐厅、酒店、运输公司和建筑公司。墨西哥能源公司还将寻求在国际市场募资。例如,深水钻井业务承包商Grupo?SA DE CV公司去年在国际市场发售了9.5亿美元企业债券。

  墨西哥国会仍需要批准给落实能源改革提供法律框架的所谓二级法案,在此之前,这只不过是一个更具钱途的愿景。跨国企业将会等待墨西哥提供法律确定性、合理税制和灵活的地方法规这些墨西哥企业参与新能源项目所要求的管理规章。虽然墨西哥国会原定在今年4月份批准通过二级法案,Cervera预计二级法案要到今年7月或8月才能得以通过。届时,墨西哥可以开始将自己蜕变成一只“阿兹特克之虎”。

  英文原文:Mexico Oil: Awakening the ‘Aztec Tiger’

For the past seventy-five years, Mexico's oil and gas reserves have been a highly-coveted but untouchable resource that private energy companies could only dream of tapping. That changed late last year, when lawmakers passed watershed legislation that did away with the state oil monopoly and allowed production sharing with the private sector. Soon, foreign companies will be able to bring in best-in-class technology and know-how that the country urgently needs to tap both its deep-water and shale fields, with the goal of wresting Mexico's energy industry out of a state of persistent decline. While that's a big deal in and of itself, it's not even close to the whole enchilada. The potential impact of the energy bill and other recently passed reforms promises something much greater than that-nothing short of a wholesale paradigm shift for Mexico’s economy.

Stifled by a lack of competition in many sectors, Mexico's economy has been a laggard in the Latin America region, with GDP growth averaging a lackluster 2.6 percent between 1994 and 2013. The energy legislation could increase annual real GDP growth by an average of 0.7 percentage points between 2015 and 2018, according to the government. Add that to the impact of other recent reforms to the labor market, telecommunications sector and financial industry, and potential annual real GDP growth could be 1.7 percentage points higher - some 4.5 percent per year over the medium term. "If that happens, the reforms will clearly benefit the whole population," says Alonso Cervera, who oversees Credit Suisse's economic research for Mexico.

How exactly will the energy reform boost growth? At the most basic level, it could increase oil output to as much as 3.5 million barrels per day by 2025. That would be a dramatic turnaround: Mexico's daily output has fallen from 3.3 million barrels per day in 2004 to just 2.5 million today due to a combination of depletion of current fields and significant underinvestment. By inviting multinationals in to explore deepwater fields in the Gulf of Mexico as well as shale areas along the U.S.-Mexico border, the country could attract new foreign direct investment of some $10 billion a year. And that, the government hopes, could create 2.5 million new direct and indirect jobs by 2025. "There will be reverberations around the economy from the increase in jobs," says Christian Gomez, director of energy for the Council of the Americas.

The expected jolt to both economic and job growth should bolster Mexico's burgeoning middle class and generate increased consumer demand, thereby boosting revenue for retail companies, and in the process attracting investor interest in both private and publicly-traded beneficiaries. Smaller Mexican energy companies participating in the industry's growth will also be candidates for public offerings, which would help to diversify a Mexican stock market that has traditionally been dominated by just a handful of big names. Last year, Infraestructura Energetica Nova SAB, the Mexican unit of U.S. natural-gas utility Sempra Energy, became the first-ever Mexican energy company to trade publicly on the Mexican Stock Exchange, or Bolsa. "The Bolsa was controlled by the same names forever and there were years when there were no IPOs," says Cervera. "The biggest impact of the structural reforms on financial markets should come from the new names looking to access funds either in the debt or equity markets."

Local bond markets also stand to see increased activity. Smaller Mexican firms specializing in E&P and services are likely to raise capital locally to fund their expansion, as are restaurants, hotels, transportation and construction companies aiming to service the growing energy sector. Mexican energy firms will also be looking to raise money in international markets as well. Deepwater drilling contractor Grupo R SA de CV, for example, sold $950 million of bonds last year.

Mexico's Congress still needs to approve so-called secondary legislation that will provide the legal framework to implement the energy reform and, until that happens, this is all just a vision of a more profitable future. International firms will be looking for Mexico to provide legal certainty, a sensible tax regime, and flexible local content rules-the requirements governing required participation of Mexican companies in new energy projects. While lawmakers originally aimed to pass the legislation in April, Cervera expects action by July or August. At that point, Mexico can begin its attempt to transform itself into an 'Aztec tiger.'

来源:Financialist,2014.6.23,作者:Jens Erik Gould
作者:Jens

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