全球观察:俄罗斯反制裁为拉美国家提供食品出口机遇
2014-09-09 16:39:28
全球观察:俄罗斯反制裁为拉美国家提供食品出口机遇(2014.09.09)

  提要:近日,俄罗斯宣布禁止进口美国、欧盟、澳大利亚、加拿大和挪威的农产品及食品,以回应这些国家和组织的对俄制裁。这可能导致俄罗斯食品进口出现缺口,如果俄罗斯选择从其他国家进口食品来弥补缺口,阿根廷和巴西等拉美国家有望增加对俄罗斯的肉制品、水果、蔬菜、乳制品等食品和农产品的出口。不过,拉美国家提高对俄罗斯食品供应的能力将受制于一系列外交、政治、经济和气象因素。

  (外脑精华·北京)俄罗斯采取反制裁措施

  8月7日,俄罗斯政府宣布禁止进口美国、欧盟、澳大利亚、加拿大和挪威的农产品及食品。俄罗斯总理梅德韦杰夫发布的清单显示,禁止进口的食物包括牛肉、鱼、猪肉、家禽、蔬菜、水果和奶制品。俄罗斯在8月20日发布了一份经修订的清单中还将活鱼列入禁止进口食物范围,而且这份清单还列出了不受禁止的食物。这些进口限令是为了回应上述国家因俄罗斯涉嫌干涉乌克兰东部政局对俄罗斯实施的制裁举措。俄罗斯政府曾经表示,如果其“西方伙伴”对关于这一问题的对话持开放态度,俄罗斯愿意重新审视制裁。

  禁止西方国家对俄罗斯出口农产品和食品将对受影响国家的经济产生负面影响。尤其是欧盟国家和美国2013年对俄罗斯出口的食品价值总额达到了171亿美元。俄罗斯还是欧盟的第二大食品出口市场,而且对俄食品出口占欧盟食品出口总额的近10%。不过,进口禁令估计也将造成俄罗斯食品进口出现8%的缺口,如果无法填补这一缺口,将造成俄罗斯食品供应短缺。在这方面,俄罗斯的选择仅限于提高被禁止进口食品的国内产量或是从其他食品出口国进口食品。

  巴西和阿根廷将会受益

  如果俄罗斯选择后一种策略,拉美地区农产品出口国可能将是主要受益者。实际上,阿根廷、巴西、智利、厄瓜多尔、巴拉圭和乌拉圭都已表示有兴趣增加对俄罗斯的食品和农产品出口。受益最大的行业可能是牛肉、猪肉、鸡肉、大豆、水果、蔬菜和乳制品行业。

  8月21日,阿根廷政府宣布,由工业部长Debroa Giorgi和农业部长Carlos Casamiquela等成员组成的一个赴俄贸易代表团已同俄罗斯政府达成关于阿根廷向俄罗斯增加食品出口的协议。虽然该协议的细节尚未披露,阿根廷内阁首席部长Jorge Capitanich声称这份协议打开了近180亿美元贸易额的机会之窗,尽管这一数字超过了美国和欧盟对俄罗斯食品出口总额。2014年1-6月份阿根廷对俄罗斯的出口总额为2.97亿美元。主要出口产品包括肉制品、水果、乳制品和葡萄酒。阿根廷乳制品协会的负责人表示,如今阿根廷对俄罗斯的乳制品出口额的增幅可以高达20%。不过,阿根廷生产者加快生产的能力和意愿方面存在一系列问题。这同阿根廷本币持续走软相关,从而使得阿根廷农产品种植者倾向于囤积农作物。不过,对俄罗斯出口增长可能至少在一定程度上会缓解阿根廷外汇短缺问题,目前阿根廷的外汇总额从2011年520亿美元降至290亿美元。

  巴西有望成为拉美国家俄罗斯制裁中的最大受益者。事实上,巴西驻莫斯科大使Antonio José Valim Guerreiro在8月21日发表了一份声明,指出巴俄两国双边贸易有增长潜力。在这方面,作为全球最大肉类食品出口国,巴西已经从俄罗斯增长的需求中受益匪浅。巴西肉类食品出口商协会的统计数据显示,2014年巴西对俄罗斯的肉类食品出口额同比增长了70%,俄罗斯是4月份巴西肉类食品出口的主要目的地,7月份巴西向俄罗斯出口了4.1万吨肉类食品,出口收入为1.81亿美元。巴西当地媒体预测,今年巴西对俄罗斯的牛肉出口总额有望增长8亿美元。巴西动物蛋白质协会主席表示,巴西准备将对俄罗斯的鸡肉出口量增加15万吨,以弥补禁止从美国进口鸡肉所造成的缺口。2013年巴西对俄罗斯的鸡肉出口总量为6万吨。巴西政府官员还指出,巴西正在寻求扩大对俄罗斯的鱼类产品和黄油、奶酪和奶粉等乳制品的出口。2013年俄罗斯黄油进口总额为6.8亿美元,主要是从新西兰和白俄罗斯进口黄油。2013年巴西对俄罗斯出口总额为27.2亿美元。

  但是,巴西面临着可能会抑制其扩大出口能力的一系列障碍。其中的一个主要障碍是俄罗斯消费者监督机构Rosselkhoznadzor以不符合食品卫生标准为由,禁止一系列巴西牛肉和猪肉加工厂向俄罗斯输出食品。而最近的一系列限制措施于2013年9月颁布实施,俄罗斯当地媒体报道称,Rosselkhoznadzor已经宣布将解除对巴西食品公司等三家食品公司的进口禁令。巴西媒体也报道称,巴西当局已经给90家国内肉类加工企发放了出口许可。

  前景和影响

  拉美国家利用俄罗斯制裁的能力将会成为疑问。就政治角度而言,美国和欧盟可能将实施巨大的外交压力来禁止拉美国家增加对俄罗斯的食品供应。事实上,《金融时报》援引一位欧盟高级官员的话称,欧盟希望各国不要寻求从俄罗斯局势中获取不当利润。欧盟可能用于向拉美国家施压的筹备是其同巴西和南方共同市场(包括阿根廷、巴西、巴拉圭、乌拉圭和委内瑞拉)正在进行的自由贸易协定谈判。该谈判的进程已经超过了15年,但仍是拉美贸易集团的一个主要目标,最主要的原因是估计这份协议的签署可以促使南方共同市场对欧盟的出口增长40%。不过,这项自由贸易协定谈判仍然面临重重障碍,其中包括阿根廷不愿向外国出口商开放国内市场以及巴西倾向于欧盟洽谈单独的协议。就拉美国家需要权衡在短期内提高对俄罗斯的食品供应的成本和利益而言,因而拉美国家可能会为此付出拖缓其同欧盟达成自由贸易协定进程,甚至导致谈判破裂的长期代价,进而造成每个国家对这一问题形成各自不同的战略思维。一旦解除制裁,俄罗斯对其食品供应商的长远态度也将难以预料。

  拉美国家是否具备增产能力也是问题。巴西和巴拉圭有着巨大的增产潜力,尤其是如果俄罗斯解除禁令。由于新种的一些水果和蔬菜最有可能在2015年初才能收割,拉美国家农产品种植者可能还将面临是否具备满足当前阶段季节性水果和蔬菜需求能力的问题。最终,大幅提高出口可能将造成拉美国家国内食品供应和价格受到影响,进而可能将被证明是一项不得人心和不具政治可行性之举,尤其是在将于今年10月份举行总统选举的巴西以及定于2015年举行总统选举的阿根廷。在这方面,阿根廷政府于8月21日宣布了一项15天期限的牛肉出口禁令,以稳定国内牛肉供应和确保牛肉价格处于合理水平。

  英文原文:Opportunities for Latin American agribusiness exporters arising from Russian sanctions potentially hedged by EU pressure

Sanctions imposed by Russia on agricultural and food-related imports from the United States, the European Union, Australia, Canada, and Norway appear set to result in a shortfall in Russian food imports.

Implications

Should Russia opt to substitute its food producers, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay have the potential to increase exports of food and agricultural products including meat, fruit, vegetables, dairy, and wine.

Outlook

Latin America's ability to capitalise on Russian sanctions will be impeded by ongoing restrictions on meat imports from Brazil and Paraguay, as well as diplomatic, local political-economic, and meteorological considerations.

Russian sanctions

On 7 August, the Russian government imposed embargoes on agricultural and food-related imports from the United States, the European Union, Australia, Canada, and Norway. According to a list issued by Russian prime minister Dmitry Medvedev, the import ban includes beef, fish, pork, poultry, vegetables, fruit, and dairy products. An amended list published on 20 August also included bans on imports of live fish, along with a number of exceptions. The restrictions are in retaliation for sanctions imposed by the aforementioned countries on Russia over its alleged involvement in eastern Ukraine. The Russian government has said it would be willing to review the sanctions if its "Western partners" were open to dialogue on the issue.

A ban on agriculture and food products imported into Russia from Western countries has palpable negative economic implications for the states affected. Not least among these are EU countries and the United States, whose combined total food exports to Russia in 2013 were worth USD17.1 billion (European Union: USD15.8 billion; United States: USD1.3 billion). Russia is also the European Union's second largest market for food exports and accounts for approximately 10% of the bloc's total food exports. However, the import restrictions are also estimated to have created an 8% shortfall in Russian food imports, which if not filled risks generating shortages. In this regard, Russia's options are confined to increasing domestic production of the restricted produce or substituting using alternative food importers.

Filling the void

Should Russia opt for the latter strategy, Latin American agri-exporters are likely to be among the main beneficiaries. Indeed, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Uruguay have all expressed an interest in increasing food and agri-exports to Russia. Among the sectors likely to benefit most are the beef, pork, chicken, soy, fruit, vegetables, and dairy industries.

Argentina

The Argentine government announced yesterday (21 August) that a trade mission to Moscow, which included Minister of Industry Debroa Giorgi and Minister of Agriculture Carlos Casamiquela, had reached agreements with the Russian government on increasing food exports to Russia. Although details of the agreement have not yet been disclosed, Argentine cabinet chief Jorge Capitanich claimed that the agreement opened a window of opportunity for nearly USD18 billion in trade - although that figure exceeds total US and EU food exports to Russia. Total Argentine exports to Russia from January to June 2014 amounted to USD297 million. The main exported products included meat, fruit, dairy, and wine. According to the head of Argentina's dairy chamber, dairy exports to Russia could now increase by as much as 20%. However, there are questions over the ability and indeed willingness of Argentine producers to step up production. This relates to ongoing currency difficulties, which increase producers' propensity to hoard (see Argentina: 15 August 2014: Argentine default fosters uncertainty for soy farmers exacerbating contract frustration, taxation, and currency risks). Nonetheless, increased exports to Russia have the potential to at least partially address shortages in Argentina's ongoing foreign-exchange reserves, which currently stand at USD29 billion, down from USD52 billion in 2011.

Brazil

Brazil is among the Latin American countries that potentially stand to benefit the most from the Russian sanctions. Indeed, the Brazilian ambassador in Moscow, Antonio José Valim Guerreiro, issued a statement yesterday (21 August), underlining the potential for growth in bilateral trade. In this regard, Brazil, the world's largest meat exporter, is already reaping the benefits of increased demand in Russia. According to the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporters (Associa??o Brasileira das Indústrias Exportadoras de Carne: ABIEC), Brazilian meat exports to Russia increased by 70% in July 2014 compared with July 2013. Moreover, Russia was the main export destination for Brazilian meat in July, accounting for 41,000 tonnes or USD181 million in revenues. Projections in local media indicate that Brazilian beef exports to Russia could increase by USD800 million in 2014. According to the president of the Brazilian Association of Animal Protein (Associa??o Brasileira de Proteína Animal: ABPA), the South American country is preparing to increase chicken exports to Russia by 150,000 tonnes, to make up for the shortfall resulting from the ban on US imports. Brazil exported 60,000 tonnes of chicken to Russia in 2013. Government officials have also indicated that Brazil is seeking to increase exports of fish and dairy products including butter, cheese, and milk powder. Russia imported USD680 million-worth of butter in 2013, mainly from New Zealand and Belarus. Brazilian exports to Russia in 2013 were worth USD2.72 billion.

Nonetheless, Brazil faces a number of obstacles that have the potential to hinder its ability to increase exports. One major hurdle relates to restrictions imposed on a series of Brazilian beef and pork processing plants by Russian consumer watchdog Rosselkhoznadzor for alleged unsanitary conditions. While the most recent set of restrictions has been in place since September 2013, local media report that Rosselkhoznadzor has announced that the bans on imports from three facilities, including Brazilian meat producer BRF, are to be lifted. Brazilian media sources also report that the Brazilian authorities have approved 90 meat (beef, pork, and chicken) processing plants for exports.

Chile, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Uruguay

Among the other countries in the region that have the potential to benefit, Chile has expressed an interest in filling the shortfall in Russia's fruit imports. Russia imported USD567 million in agricultural produce from Chile in 2013, including fish, fruit, and wine. The Ecuadorian government has also revealed that it is evaluating its ability to increase exports of fruit, vegetables, and seafood to Russia. According to Rosselkhoznadzor, 23 Ecuadorian companies that have not previously exported to Russia are seeking to do so, while more than 30 other companies are seeking to step up fish exports. Ecuador has 29 partial trade agreements with Russia, while Russian imports from Ecuador increased by 69% between 2008 and 2012, according to the Ecuadorian Ministry of External Relations. Meanwhile, Paraguay is well placed to increase supplies of meat. Russia is already the main market for Paraguayan meat exports, consuming approximately 70% of all Paraguayan beef exports. It is also the largest export destination for Paraguayan pork, importing 1,000 tonnes or USD3 million in 2012. However, Paraguay faces similar restrictions to Brazil and a series of foot-and-mouth outbreaks since 2011 resulted in Rosselkhoznadzor imposing suspensions on buying meat from at least eight Paraguayan meat processing plants. This has resulted in an approximately 18% decline in meat exports, but Paraguay has significant potential to increase exports should those restrictions be lifted. Uruguay also has the potential to capitialise on shortfalls in Russian meat imports. Russia is Uruguay's second largest market for frozen beef exports, having imported 14% of total Uruguayan frozen beef exports in the period January-September 2013.

Outlook and implications

The ability of Latin American countries to take advantage of Russian sanctions will not be straightforward. Politically, the United States and the European Union are likely to put significant diplomatic pressure on countries in the region not to increase supplies to Russia. Indeed, the Financial Times has cited a senior EU official as saying that the intergovernmental organisation expects countries not to profit unfairly from the Russian situation. Among the bargaining chips the EU may use in applying pressure on Latin American countries are the ongoing negotiations with Brazil and Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela) regarding free-trade agreements. Mercosur-EU free-trade negotiations have been ongoing for more than 15 years, but remain a major goal of the Latin American trade bloc, not least because it has been estimated that such an agreement would increase Mercosur exports to the European Union by 40%. Nonetheless, that deal continues to face various obstacles, including Argentina's reluctance to open its domestic market to foreign imports and Brazil's appetite to negotiate its own separate deal. Efforts to weigh up the costs and benefits of increasing supplies to Russia in the short term, potentially at the cost of slowing down or even ruling out a free-trade deal with the European Union in the longer term, will therefore feature in each country's strategic thinking on the issue. Russia's intentions regarding its food suppliers in the longer term, once sanctions are potentially lifted, are also unclear.

There is also the question of the Latin American countries' ability to increase production. Brazil and Paraguay have considerable potential for expansion, not least if Russia lifts its restrictions. Problems may also arise regarding the ability of Latin American producers to meet increases in demand for seasonal fruit and vegetables at the current time of year, with the next harvest for some produce most likely not due until early 2015. Finally, a significant increase in exports may also affect domestic supply and prices, which in turn could prove unpopular and politically difficult to sell, especially in Brazil, which is due to hold a presidential election in October, and Argentina, which has an election scheduled for October 2015. In this regard, the Argentine government yesterday imposed a 15-day suspension on beef exports to stabilise domestic supply and ensure favourable prices.

来源:全球观察,2014.8.22

京ICP证000069号

中经网数据有限公司 版权所有
本网站由中国网络通信有限公司(CNCnet)提供网络带宽
建议使用 800*600 分辨率浏览